Bio
I am a fourth-year PhD Candidate in Economics at UC San Diego. My research interests are macroeconomics and econometrics. In my first two years, I studied the economic effects of global supply chain disruptions, and showed how they are key drivers of business cycle fluctuations. Now I am working on the econometric theory behind cross-sectional identification in macroeconomics.
Before my PhD, I worked for three years as an economist at Now-Casting Economics Ltd, a leading professional forecasting firm. In 2023, I developed and implemented a real-time nowcasting model for the German Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Action to predict inflation and real GDP growth, using high-frequency and alternative data.
Latest Research
Awards: IAAE 2026 Best Student Paper, Honorable Mention; Walter Heller Memorial Prize (Best 3rd Year Paper UCSD Econ)
This paper provides evidence that global supply chain shocks are key drivers of business cycle fluctuations, introducing a novel identification strategy based on a narrative analysis of price surcharges from the three largest container shipping companies. Negative shocks cause a persistent rise in consumer prices and a prolonged decline in economic activity. Sectoral impacts vary with exposure to global supply chains, proxied by the import share of inputs. Spillovers extend to non-tradable sectors. These shocks accounted for up to 45% of the post-pandemic inflation. In a counterfactual with only global supply chain shocks, recovery would have taken 18 months longer.
2026: Spring Midwest Macroeconomics Meeting · SED Annual Meeting, Athens · BSE Summer Forum · IAAE 2026, Portugal · Piraeus International Economic Conference · Oslo Macro Conference, Norges Bank · CEM-SNDE Conference, Reserve Bank of Australia · Macroeconomic Seminar Series, UCSD
2025: SOCAE Conference, UCLA · Macroeconomic Seminar Series, UCSD
2024: Macroeconomic Seminar Series, UCSD
Awards: IAAE 2026 Best Student Paper, Honorable Mention; Walter Heller Memorial Prize (Best 3rd Year Paper UCSD Econ)
Presentations
2026: Spring Midwest Macroeconomics Meeting · SED Annual Meeting, Athens · BSE Summer Forum · IAAE 2026, Portugal · Piraeus International Economic Conference · Oslo Macro Conference, Norges Bank · CEM-SNDE Conference, Reserve Bank of Australia · Macroeconomic Seminar Series, UCSD
2025: SOCAE Conference, UCLA · Macroeconomic Seminar Series, UCSD
2024: Macroeconomic Seminar Series, UCSD
Revise & Resubmit, The Economic Journal
US business cycles since 1900, examined through a multivariate trend-cycle model consistent with a New Keynesian economy, reveal robust reduced-form regularities between slack, prices and unemployment. Once long-term trends are accounted for, a single common cycle drives output, unemployment, prices, inflation expectations and the policy rate, and behaves as a demand cycle. The slope of inflation on unemployment is −1.08 over the century, against −0.40 in the raw data, and around −0.80 in postwar subsamples. Okun’s law, connecting unemployment and output, is an equally robust relation in the data.
2023: VII Annual Santiago Macro Workshop, PUC-Chile · University of Porto · Macroeconomic Seminar Series, UCSD
Presentations
2023: VII Annual Santiago Macro Workshop, PUC-Chile · University of Porto · Macroeconomic Seminar Series, UCSD
This paper proposes a model for now-casting inflation for a selection of advanced economies and emerging markets which exploits weekly energy prices and, where available, other high-frequency indicators.