Bio
I am a fourth-year PhD Candidate in Economics at UC San Diego. My research interests are macroeconomics and econometrics. In my first two years, I studied the economic effects of global supply chain disruptions, and showed how they are key drivers of business cycle fluctuations. Now I am working on the econometric theory behind cross-sectional identification in macroeconomics.
Before my PhD, I worked for three years as an economist at Now-Casting Economics Ltd, a leading professional forecasting firm. In 2023, I developed and implemented a real-time nowcasting model for the German Federal Ministry of Economic Affairs and Climate Action to predict inflation and real GDP growth, using high-frequency and alternative data.
Latest Research
Awards: International Association for Applied Econometrics (IAAE) Best Student Paper Award 2026; Walter Heller Memorial Prize (Best 3rd Year Paper UCSD Econ) 2026
This paper provides evidence that global supply chain shocks are key drivers of business cycle fluctuations, introducing a novel identification strategy based on a narrative analysis of price surcharges from the three largest container shipping companies. Negative shocks cause a persistent rise in consumer prices and a prolonged decline in economic activity. Sectoral impacts vary with exposure to global supply chains, proxied by the import share of inputs. Spillovers extend to non-tradable sectors. These shocks accounted for up to 45% of the post-pandemic inflation. In a counterfactual with only global supply chain shocks, recovery would have taken 18 months longer.
2026: Spring Midwest Macroeconomics Meeting · SED Annual Meeting, Athens · BSE Summer Forum · IAAE 2026, Portugal · Piraeus International Economic Conference · Oslo Macro Conference, Norges Bank · CEM-SNDE Conference, Reserve Bank of Australia · Macroeconomic Seminar Series, UCSD
2025: SOCAE Conference, UCLA · Macroeconomic Seminar Series, UCSD
2024: Macroeconomic Seminar Series, UCSD
Awards: International Association for Applied Econometrics (IAAE) Best Student Paper Award 2026; Walter Heller Memorial Prize (Best 3rd Year Paper UCSD Econ) 2026
Presentations
2026: Spring Midwest Macroeconomics Meeting · SED Annual Meeting, Athens · BSE Summer Forum · IAAE 2026, Portugal · Piraeus International Economic Conference · Oslo Macro Conference, Norges Bank · CEM-SNDE Conference, Reserve Bank of Australia · Macroeconomic Seminar Series, UCSD
2025: SOCAE Conference, UCLA · Macroeconomic Seminar Series, UCSD
2024: Macroeconomic Seminar Series, UCSD
Revise & Resubmit, The Economic Journal
US business cycles since 1900, examined through a multivariate trend-cycle model consistent with a New Keynesian economy, reveal robust reduced-form regularities between slack, prices and unemployment. Once long-term trends are accounted for, a single common cycle underlies output, unemployment, prices, inflation expectations and the policy rate, and behaves as a demand cycle. The slope of inflation on unemployment is −1.08 over the century, against −0.40 in the raw data, and around −0.80 in postwar subsamples. Okun’s law, connecting unemployment and output, is an equally robust relation in the data.
2023: VII Annual Santiago Macro Workshop, PUC-Chile · University of Porto · Macroeconomic Seminar Series, UCSD
Presentations
2023: VII Annual Santiago Macro Workshop, PUC-Chile · University of Porto · Macroeconomic Seminar Series, UCSD
We introduce a new dynamic factor model to nowcast inflation. The model departs from the temporal aggregation scheme of Mariano and Murasawa (2003) and replaces it with a power law, and its latent common component evolves at weekly frequency, so that weekly, monthly and quarterly indicators can be combined as they are released. We apply the model to eleven advanced and emerging economies, and document that it outperforms both statistical benchmarks and standard dynamic factor models.